Estêvão’s Numbers Don’t Lie: A Data-Driven Preview of Chelsea’s Brazilian Marvel

The Announcement That Broke Expected Social Media Metrics

When 17-year-old Estêvão Willian flashed that toothy grin while telling Chelsea fans “See you soon” after Palmeiras’ Club World Cup match, my Twitter timeline exploded with more engagement than a Haaland hat-trick tweet. The kid hasn’t even landed at Heathrow yet, but his social media xA (expected Assists to fan hype) is already off the charts.

Why the Algorithms Love This Kid

Having crunched his Opta data from Brazil:

• Dribble stats: Completes 3.2 take-ons per 90 (top 1% for wingers)
• Creativity: 0.28 xA/90 despite playing alongside traffic cones at Palmeiras
• Efficiency: Shoots like he’s allergic to low-percentage attempts (72% shot accuracy)

My Python model rates him as a “>95th percentile progressive carrier” - which in football terms means he’ll either become Chelsea’s next Hazard or get loaned to Strasbourg by Christmas.

The Tactical Mismatch That Could Work

Pochettino’s system demands wingers who can both:

1. Break lines like Brexit broke EU relations
2. Finish chances better than Chelsea’s current £200m striking corps

Estêvão’s heatmaps show he does both while averaging fewer dispossessions (1.¹⁄₉₀) than Mudryk per halftime.

The Catch: Premier League Physics

At 5’7”, his duel win rate (48%) will face stern tests against PL fullbacks. My concern? He currently faces Brazilian defenders who tackle like they’re afraid of yellow cards. The good news? His 18-yard box entries (6.³⁄₉₀) suggest he’s smart enough to avoid Championship-level cloggers.

Final Verdict: At £30m, this might be Chelsea’s first sensible transfer since they sold Hotel Cobham to fund these deals. If he maintains his 0.25 non-penalty xG+xA abroad, we could be looking at South America’s next global superstar – or at least someone who’ll finally justify those £75 matchday pies.