Lyon’s €25m Gamble on Danilo: The Numbers Behind the Headline

The Transfer in Motion
Fabrizio Romano’s trademark ‘Here we go’ might be imminent as Lyon tables a €25 million offer for Nottingham Forest’s Brazilian midfielder Danilo. As someone who’s crunched Premier League data for half a decade, I can’t help but raise an eyebrow at the valuation - that’s approximately £21.3m for those keeping score (and you should be).

Why Danilo? The Data Dive
Let’s look beyond the transfer drama:

• Defensive Output: 2.3 tackles per 90 last season (78th percentile for PL midfielders)
• Passing Accuracy: 84.1% in a struggling Forest side
• Age Curve: Just turned 23 - prime development years ahead

The real question isn’t whether Danilo can play - it’s whether Lyon’s analytics department knows something our public data isn’t showing.

Lyon’s Midfield Calculus
With Caqueret possibly departing, Lyon need:

1. Ball-winning ability ✅
2. Progressive passing ❓ (Danilo averages just 4.33 progressive passes/90)
3. League adaptability ⚠️ (Ligue 1 intensity differs markedly from PL)

Forest’s Side of the Equation
At this price point, Forest would recover:

• Nearly triple their initial €8m outlay to Palmeiras
• Funds to comply with FFP regulations
• But lose their most consistent midfield disruptor

Final Thought: This smells like a compromise - Lyon get physicality at fair market value, Forest get breathing room. Not revolutionary, but sensibly dull. Exactly the sort of move that keeps accountants awake…in a good way.